AES Monetary Exit and Sovereign Currency Strategy
With Integrated Quantitative Balancing
Policy DraftAlliance of Sahel States (Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger)
Version 1.0 — October 2026
Purpose
This document outlines a phased strategy for exiting the CFA franc system and establishing a sovereign
monetary framework for the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). It integrates Quantitative Balancing (QB) at every stage so that monetary sovereignty extends beyond the unit of account and reserve assets to the
creation of money by commercial banks and the recovery of seigniorage.
The objective is structural: reduce external monetary dependence, make money creation visible and
accountable, and direct a defined share of seigniorage toward public stabilization and productive
investment, without suppressing credit to the real economy.
Core Principles
1. Sequencing over rupture — Infrastructure, reserves, and rules precede any change in legal tender status.
2. Visibility of money creation — Commercial bank credit creation is recorded and partially balanced; it is not prohibited.
3. Domestic control of seigniorage — A defined share of the advantage arising from money creation
accrues to the public balance sheet.
4. Diversification — No single external partner replaces the previous monetary constraint.
5. Transparency — Reserve positions, money-creation volumes, and seigniorage recovery are published
on a regular schedule.
Phase 0 — Preconditions and Transparency (6–12 months)
Objectives
Establish a factual baseline and the institutional capacity required for later phases.
Actions
• Publish a joint AES technical assessment covering:
• Foreign reserves currently held within the BCEAO system.
• Stock and composition of public debt (CFA-denominated domestic and external).• Share of trade invoiced and settled in CFA.
• Volume and composition of commercial-bank credit and estimated unrecovered seigniorage.
• Constitute an independent AES Monetary Technical Committee with economists, treasury officials,
and former central-bank practitioners. Mandate public reporting.
• Fully operationalize the Confederal Investment and Development Bank (BCID-AES) and publish its
balance sheet.
• Accelerate domestic accumulation of physical gold and other hard assets through existing state
mining vehicles and the national refinery. Publish reserve figures quarterly.
• Define the future AES unit of account both as a settlement instrument and as the reference unit for
Quantitative Balancing entries.
Quantitative Balancing in Phase 0
• Map current endogenous money creation (bank lending) versus base money.
• Design the accounting architecture of the Quantitative Balancing Account (to be hosted at BCID-AES
or a dedicated confederal entity).
• Establish the initial balancing rate (a fixed or progressive percentage applied to new credit) and the
categories of credit that will be exempt or treated differently.
• No balancing collections occur yet; the phase is diagnostic and design-only.
Phase 1 — Parallel Unit of Account and Payment Rails (12–24 months)
Objectives
Introduce the AES unit of account for selected uses and build the rails that will later carry it, while leaving ordinary CFA transactions undisturbed.
Actions
• Launch the AES unit of account for:
• Inter-state settlements inside the confederation.
• New public procurement and large mining contracts.
• Projects financed by BCID-AES.
• Upgrade existing mobile-money and banking payment systems for multi-currency operation and
offline resilience.
• Negotiate bilateral trade and settlement agreements with non-CFA partners that permit invoicing and
settlement in the AES unit, gold, or commodity baskets.
• Require a rising share of new state gold sales and mining-related revenues to be held or settled
outside the CFA system.
Quantitative Balancing in Phase 1
• Open the Quantitative Balancing Account.
• Apply balancing to all new credit denominated in the AES unit of account:
• When a commercial bank extends such credit, a corresponding seigniorage claim is recorded in favor
of the AES public balance sheet.
• Recovery occurs through one or more of the following: an additional non-remunerated reserve
requirement, a periodic payment in AES units or gold, or an automatic credit to a stabilization or
investment fund.
• CFA-denominated credit remains outside the balancing regime during this phase.
• Publish monthly figures on AES-unit credit creation and seigniorage recorded.
Objectives
Allow the AES unit to circulate alongside the CFA and extend Quantitative Balancing to the growing share of activity denominated in the new unit.
Actions
• Declare a dual-circulation period. The AES unit becomes legal tender in parallel with the CFA.
• Convert a defined portion of new government revenues (particularly gold-related receipts) directly into
the AES unit and into domestically held reserves.
• Open voluntary conversion windows for residents and firms under published rules. No forced haircuts
on existing CFA savings in the initial stage.
• Restructure or roll over CFA-denominated domestic debt instruments into the AES unit where
feasible.
• Maintain a temporary, transparent external anchor (gold plus a basket of major trading-partner
currencies, or a commodity basket). Publish the rule and the weights.
Quantitative Balancing in Phase 2
• Extend the balancing regime to all credit denominated in the AES unit.
• Keep CFA credit outside the regime to avoid disruptive arbitrage during the overlap period.
• Adjust the balancing rate if necessary on the basis of observed credit volumes and inflation outcomes;
changes are pre-announced.
• Channel recovered seigniorage primarily into:
1. A stabilization fund.
2. Productive public investment (energy, mineral processing, agriculture).
3. Reduction of existing public debt.
• Continue monthly public reporting of money creation and seigniorage recovery.
Phase 3 — Full Monetary Sovereignty
Objectives
Complete the transition so that the AES unit is the sole legal tender and Quantitative Balancing operates
as a permanent feature of the monetary system.
Actions
• Withdraw legal-tender status from the CFA once the AES unit accounts for the majority of domestic
transactions and public finance.
• Operate a joint or closely coordinated AES monetary authority (a single currency is preferable but not
strictly required if political conditions favor staggered adoption).
• Maintain convertibility for trade and external debt service under published rules.
• Avoid both a rigid external peg that recreates the former constraint and an unmanaged float.
Quantitative Balancing in Phase 3
• Banks remain free to allocate credit according to risk criteria; they do not retain the entirety of the
seigniorage generated by that creation.
• Recovered seigniorage continues to fund the stabilization fund, productive investment, and debt
reduction under a published allocation rule.
• The balancing rate and exempt categories are set by transparent regulation, not by discretionary
executive decision.
• Annual audits of the Quantitative Balancing Account are published.
Critical Risk Controls
• **Inflation and confidence** — Reserve accumulation, payment infrastructure, and a credible anchor must precede any large-scale shift in legal tender. Gold production and refining capacity are helpful but not sufficient alone.
• **Trade disruption** — Parallel settlement rails and new trading partners must be functional before
the CFA loses legal-tender status.
• **New dependency** — Exclusive reliance on any single external security or commodity partner
recreates the original problem. Counterparties should be diversified.
• **Governance of seigniorage** — Quantitative Balancing must be rule-based and publicly reported.
Discretionary control over the recovered funds would simply relocate the monetary advantage from an
external authority to a domestic one.
• **Credit conditions** — The mechanism is an accounting and recovery tool, not a quantitative ceiling on lending. Ceilings risk contracting the real economy; balancing leaves credit decisions with the banks while sharing the seigniorage.
• **Administrative capacity** — The BCID-AES and existing payment systems can host the initial
balancing entries. Complexity should be kept low in the first years.
• **Security and administrative prerequisites** — Large-scale monetary reform is fragile while
significant territory remains outside effective state control. Stabilization progress should be monitored
in parallel.
Immediate Next Steps (No Full Exit Required)
1. Make BCID-AES fully operational and publish its balance sheet.
2. Commission and release the joint technical assessment of CFA exposure, credit volumes, and
estimated seigniorage.
3. Design and publish the accounting rules for the Quantitative Balancing Account, including the initial rate and exempt categories.
4. Require that an increasing share of new mining contracts and state gold sales be settled or held outside the CFA system.
5. Begin technical work on the AES unit of account and payment-system upgrades without announcing a fixed conversion date.
Exiting the CFA without addressing commercial-bank money creation changes the name of the currency
while leaving the dominant source of liquidity and its associated advantage largely unchanged. Integrating Quantitative Balancing at each phase makes monetary sovereignty operational on both base money and bank-created money. The sequence prioritizes measurable capacity—reserves, rails, rules, and transparency—over declarative rupture. The institutional pieces already announced by the AES (confederal bank, mining vehicles, joint documentation) can support the early phases; the remaining requirements are reserve accumulation under domestic control, diversified settlement options, and a published, credible balancing rule.
End of policy draft

